Bill Burton: It's time for us to take a look at the Science Behind the Forecast, as I'm joined by WAVE 3 meteorologist Tawana Andrew. Good morning, Tawana.
Tawana Andrew: Good morning. I know we're getting closer to spring break and a lot of people are traveling, so I wanted to, you know, make sure the public is well informed.
BB: Absolutely. You're going to spend a few minutes this morning shaking us up because we're talking about turbulence. So what do we need to know about turbulence?
TA: Well, turbulence is something that, of course, a lot of people have encountered while traveling. And according to the FAA between 2009 and 2023, 184 crew and passengers were seriously injured by turbulence. That is, that is a lot of people when, but when you think about the millions of flights that happen every day, it's really not that many.
BB: It is a small percentage actually when you look at it that way.
TA: And the NTSB, they did a review of 111 incidents of turbulence between 2009 and 2018, and they found that 58% of those incidences were immediately near convection, so near showers or thunderstorms.
BB: Makes sense.
TA: So turbulence usually you think of a thunderstorm, rain cloud, something like that when you have turbulence when you're flying, but it can actually be an issue miles away from a thunderstorm. So we talked about turbulence before and there are a few types of turbulence. There's light turbulence where you got a little bit of a jostle, the Coke that you're holding gets a little bit jostled out of your hand. That, that's light turbulence, right? There's moderate turbulence, severe turbulence, and extreme turbulence. Extreme turbulence is the very, very rare turbulence where, aircraft can actually lose control. That does not happen often.
BB: Thankfully.
TA: But with convectively induced turbulence, the one that's usually associated with a thunderstorm. That often originates from the gravity waves created by the convection within that thunderstorm. And current guidance from the FAA recommends that pilots avoid flying within 20 miles of a thunderstorm, but research shows that they should probably be flying a little bit further away. So researchers analyzed more than 200 million turbulence reports in between 2009 and 2017. And the research showed that the likelihood of turbulence increases 55 miles away from a thunderstorm. That actually doubles the risk compared to typical weather conditions at 43 miles out. And keep in mind that a plane's chance of dealing with severe turbulence increases by a factor of 20 within 3 miles of a thunderstorm. So they really should be flying a little bit further away than what the current guidance has in place. Now, it is important to note, I know I might have, might have scared a few people. But it is important to note that a flight would have to travel for a week straight, so 7 days straight to encounter 1 minute, 60 seconds of severe turbulence on average.
BB: OK, so you gave us a bit of a scare, but now you've calmed us down.
TA: Yes, it does not happen often, but it is something that pilots, the FAA, the NTSB, they're all looking at meteorologists are all looking at. Doing the research to make sure that everyone can stay as safe as possible while flying, and while it may not be possible to reroute planes to avoid every incidence of turbulence, pilots can prompt passengers to fasten their seatbelts a little bit sooner than what's currently practiced. So when you see that seatbelt light turn on, put it on.
BB: They're not doing it just to amuse themselves, so now we understand that that turbulence is a very serious issue, but it's also, serious turbulence, is pretty rare. And we know this thanks to this edition of Science Behind the Forecast with WAVE 3 meteorologist Tawana Andrew. Thanks for the knowledge, Tawana.
TA: Of course.
This transcript was edited for clarity.
