Bill Burton: It's time for Science Behind the Forecast as I am joined by WAVE 3 meteorologist Tawana Andrew. Good morning, Tawana.
Tawana Andrew: Good morning. This topic is for the people with the sweet tooth that are just craving something right now.
BB: Yeah, Valentine's Day was a couple of weeks ago, kind of the height of chocolate season. But let's be honest. All 52 weeks really are chocolate season and that's what we're talking about today. Chocolate and how weather can affect it. What do we need to know?
TA: Well, unfortunately for those of us who love chocolate, we have seen a surge in prices over the past couple of years. In fact, cacao prices surged by 136%. Yeah, and that was just between July of 2022 and February of 2024 and and rising temperatures are partly to blame. So yeah, the weather can affect how good of the chocolate and how much chocolate you can have. So don't blame me, just blame the weather.
BB: You're just the messenger.
TA: I'm just the messenger here. So these trees, the cacao trees, are very specific with what they need weather-wise to thrive. They thrive in regions about 20 degrees north and 20 degrees south of the equator, and they need, they need very consistent temperatures. They need abundant rainfall, they need protection from the wind, they need high humidity and nitrogen-rich soil to really thrive. So they're a bit, they know what they want and they're a bit bougie and we understand that.
BB: Bougie plants. I like that. I've never heard that concept before, but I like it.
TA: Let me tell you, they're very specific. So, ideal temperatures for for cacao growth reach up to 90 °F. When you start to have temperatures above this level, both the quality and the quantity of cacao harvests start to decline. So in areas like Cameroon, Ghana, Nigeria, they're among some of the top chocolate producers globally. But unfortunately, in these regions, data shows that they've been, there's been an increase up to 40 days annually with temperatures above 90 °F over the last decade. And in the study that I looked at, 28 out of 44 cacao producing areas in these countries experienced at least 6 additional weeks of heat that were negatively impacting cacao production each year. So they're seeing a lot more heat and that is leading to some issues. And it's not just the heat, either. The changes in precipitation. In these areas have as well has been reducing crop yields. Remember how I said cacao plants are bougie?
BB: I remember.
TA: They thrive with annual rainfall in between 59 and 79 inches annually. So they know exactly what they want. Plus, dry spells cannot exceed 3 months annually. So that means if there's more than 3 months of dry weather, then they start to see additional issues in terms of crop yields in West Africa. And that's kind of what we saw last year. So if you're wondering why your chocolate prices went up last year, they just didn't have enough rain, and that led to the prices going up.
BB: And we know just how difficult these bougie plants can be and how chocolate is just getting pricier and pricier, because of this edition of Science Behind the Forecast with WAVE 3 meteorologist Tawana Andrew. Thanks for the knowledge, Tawana.
TA: Of course.
This transcript was edited for clarity.
