The 2025 legislative session of the Kentucky General Assembly kicks off Jan. 7 in Frankfort, where Republicans will maintain their dominant supermajority in both chambers.
The short 30-day session will begin with four days that week, then take three weeks off and reconvene in February. After a two-week veto period break in mid-March, legislators will return to conclude the session on March 28.
Lawmakers passed a two-year state budget in the 2024 session, so the heavy lifting of outlining billions of dollars of government revenue and spending will likely take a backseat to other policy issues.
However, the first item they are expected to take up and pass will involve taxes, as GOP leadership has indicated they intend to quickly take up lowering the individual income tax rate to 3.5% in 2026 — a move made possible by the state hitting budget triggers last summer.
Republican House Speaker David Osborne hopes lawmakers resist efforts to “open the budget” in the short session by adding large new appropriations, though some are likely to push for spending to address certain challenges, such as housing, child care, juvenile justice and teacher shortages.
GOP Senate President Robert Stivers indicated that he wants lawmakers to resist temptations to take up a multitude of issues, and instead “stay disciplined and focused on the true intent of a short year session, of looking at large policy issues and letting other issues somewhat slide to the back burner.”
“Where do we need to look at big policy changes, and not file 842 bills that we have to keep up with in a 30-day session,” Stivers told the audience at a Kentucky Chamber of Commerce conference in December. “But maybe (pass) 50 bills.”
But what are those big policy issues that will make their way through the House and Senate?
Republicans had hoped to push through major legislation reforming the state’s education system, but were thwarted by voters who soundly rejected a proposed constitutional amendment to allow public funds to go toward private and charter education. Still, they may focus legislation at Jefferson County Public Schools — a favorite target for their criticism — even though a task force examining the district is expected to delay their recommendations until after the session.
On the health care front, there could also be efforts to reform certificate of need requirements and identify savings in the Medicaid budget. Social conservatives in the GOP caucus may also target health care services for transgender inmates, as well as push again for legislation restricting diversity, equity and inclusion measures at public colleges.
Here’s a closer look at some of these big issues to watch for in the 2025 session.
A quick tax cut, and slow path to 0% rate
Another half-percentage point cut to the state’s income tax is just about the only thing Kentuckians can expect with near total certainty this session.
Members of GOP leadership have trumpeted it as their first priority for the session, with Osborne saying the House will pass it in the first week before lawmakers break until February.
Though his vetoes can be very easily overridden by the GOP supermajority, even Democratic Gov. Andy Beshear has signaled his support for another cut.
“One concern that I have — while I’m glad there are guardrails — the train only moves one direction,” Beshear said. “We will hit a point where we can’t provide the services people expect from government if we lose too much revenue. But I believe with our booming economy, this next income tax cut is something we can do and still provide the services that are out there.”
The stated goal of the tax cut trigger mechanism set up by the legislature in 2022 is to gradually get the tax rate down to zero, like neighboring Tennessee. In that time, the individual income tax rate has gone from 5% to 4%.
However, the forecast ahead for the next few years shows the chances of hitting tax cuts triggers is very low, unless other structural changes are made to the budget.
“Until we do a few more things, it will be more difficult to reach further points of time that we can hit those triggers,” Stivers said at the chamber conference. “But I do believe it is attainable (to hit a 0% tax rate).”
Sen. Chris McDaniel, the GOP chairman of the budget committee from Ryland Heights, said the trigger system is working as the deliberate and long term project is was intended to be, citing the previous year when the triggers were not met — as well as other states that cut their income tax too quickly and were forced to make emergency cuts.
“We've seen examples of other states where they were overly aggressive with what they did, and it not only forced them to make some very difficult mid-cycle decisions, but it also really derailed a lot of their efforts in reducing the income tax because they lost public opinion,” McDaniel said.
Also related to tax cuts, Osborne is very doubtful that a proposed constitutional amendment to give local governments more authority over levying taxes will pass this year. Though the chamber-backed measure passed the House in past sessions, it has been a nonstarter in the Senate and he believes there would have to be significant efforts to educate the public and legislators before it will be tried again.
As for spending, Osborne says a successful session means they will not open up the budget by adding significant new appropriations in a non-budget year — and certainly nothing like the $2.7 billion of rainy day funds spent in House Bill 1 for numerous projects around the state.
Despite his hopes, Osborne noted that some lawmakers will still seek new appropriations.
“I'm stunned at the number of funding requests we've already had for this next session,” Osborne said. “We're going to continue to be very, very intentional about every single dollar that we spend.”
Health care: Medicaid and certificate of need
Among the reasons cited for the difficulty of hitting tax cut triggers in the next few years is the ballooning cost of the state’s share of Medicaid spending.
Osborne singled out Medicaid spending as “the number one obstacle” to hitting the tax cut triggers in future years. While he isn’t sure that legislation will move this session to address such spending, he noted that Kentucky’s Medicaid enrollment keeps expanding, which will have a “dramatic” impact on the state budget going forward “unless we figure out a way to get it under control.”
The speaker noted that they created a Medicaid Oversight and Review Committee of legislators in the last session, which is tasked with bringing in “expertise outside of the (Cabinet for Health and Family Services) to start digging into these things where we can find savings” and efficiencies.
Also of note is whether the new GOP-controlled U.S. Congress and White House will repeal or roll back the Affordable Care Act, the federal law that has allowed Kentucky to dramatically expand its Medicaid enrollment at a discounted rate.
One reform that GOP leadership has been resistant to advance in recent sessions is rolling back certificate of need requirements for the opening of new health care facilities.
Members of what’s known as the “liberty” wing of the GOP caucus in Frankfort have pushed for this legislation, along with conservative advocacy groups like Americans for Prosperity who believe the certificate of need requirements violate free market principles. They argue that hospitals are allowed to operate as a monopoly in certain regions, keeping potential competitors at bay and inflating the cost of services.
Opponents of certificate of need reform have so far won out in the GOP caucus, as rural hospitals in particular have said the legislation would push the already struggling facilities into insolvency and possible closure.
One specific area of certificate of need reform might stand a better chance — a bill to allow freestanding birthing centers. A bill sponsored by Rep. James Nemes — a member of House GOP leadership from Louisville — cleared the chamber in the 2024 session, only to stall in the Senate.
Education and JCPS
With voters strongly rejecting Amendment 2 at the ballot box in November, Republicans allied with the “school choice” movement are likely to scrap whatever plans they had this session to provide a funding mechanism for private and charter school education. Previous funding bills they passed were struck down as unconstitutional by the Kentucky Supreme Court.
“The public has spoken. They said they don't like [the amendment], so we're going to look at other pathways to have accountability and performance in poorly performing school districts,” Stivers said just after the election. “And I think everybody is for that. You want accountability and good performance in public education.”
As for the traditional funding structure of K-12 public schools, the state budget for the next two years is already locked in. This makes any changes to teacher pay or the school funding formula unlikely this session unlikely — along with the fact that those pushing it will mostly be members of the tiny Democratic minority.
With little chance of making large structural changes in public education, some Republican lawmakers have made pointed criticism at Jefferson County Public Schools, suggesting their reform efforts could start there.
“We don't want to see failing schools. That doesn't help anybody at all,” said incoming Senate Majority Floor Leader Max Wise. “With that, though, we need to make sure that Jefferson County schools are doing everything that they can within their budget.”
A legislative task force that was created in the 2024 legislative session to examine JCPS announced late that year that it would not produce recommendations until after the 2025 session, as they continue to weigh whether or not to break up the district or other potential reforms. That said, Osborne has suggested there could still be “some targeted things” passed in the upcoming session “to help increase some education attainment at JCPS.”
Culture Wars
Though social conservative culture war topics on the LGBTQ+ community and abortion often dominate discussion in each session, bills on these issues did not see a lot of movement in the 2024 session.
While a bill to limit or eliminate diversity, equity and inclusion (DEI) initiatives at public colleges passed through the House and made a lot of headlines, it was stopped short in the Senate, where it failed to gain full support in the GOP caucus. However, lawmakers have signaled they are likely to try again this session.
“I think that for whatever reason — and I wasn't in leadership that time — it didn't make its way to the governor's desk,” Wise said. “That doesn't mean that we can't come back and look at that and revisit that issue again.”
Perhaps in anticipation of this move, presidents at some colleges have already decided to change or eliminate DEI initiatives, such as the University of Kentucky.
Though some Republicans have expressed support for adding exceptions to Kentucky’s near-total abortion ban — such as rape, incest and non-viable pregnancies — legislation to do so did not move in the past two sessions.
Wise says there is likely still not enough support for advancing such a bill in either GOP caucus.
“I don't know in 2024 if it was still as much of a policy issue that we saw, with… the Trump presidency winning the popular vote,” Wise said. “I’m not sure if it really was that persuasive for a lot of voters in 2024. It's kind of a wait and see.”
Legislation seeking to limit access to gender-affirming medical care or targeting Kentucky’s small transgender population is likely to remain a perennial topic in the legislature. Now that the legislature banned all gender-affirming care for minors in the state in 2023 — a law that is now before the U.S. Supreme Court — Wise, the lead sponsor of that bill, says he is content to let that play out.
“What we did was Senate Bill 150 you know, some people call it controversial. Some people call it common sense,” Wise said. “A lot of the stuff that we've done in the past are taking care of themselves.”
Several GOP lawmakers have also targeted the Department of Corrections’ proposed rule to create a pathway for gender reassignment surgery for prison inmates, who could spur legislation to roll it back.
Republican state Rep. Josh Calloway of Irvington said he would also draft legislation to reverse a Beshear executive order from September to restrict conversion therapy — which tries to force a person to change their sexual orientation or their gender identity.
Calloway and members of the liberty wing of the GOP caucus called the order “an attempt to bring California-style liberal ideals to Kentucky” and “an attack on the very principles that Kentucky parents hold dear.”
State government and politics reporting is supported in part by the Corporation for Public Broadcasting.
