Fall weather isn't usually as severe as what we can get in the spring, but it does happen occasionally. Tawana Andrew explains why.
Bill Burton: It's time for us to take a look at the Science Behind the Forecast as I am joined by WAVE 3 meteorologist Tawana Andrew. Good morning, Tawana.
Tawana Andrew: Good morning. Today we're talking about a threat that people typically don't think about as we head through the fall months.
BB: That's true. When you think about fall, you think about, well, falling leaves and things like that, and generally fairly calm weather. But that isn't always necessarily the case. There can be a lot of severe weather in this season. Tell us about it.
TA: Yeah. So as we get into the fall months, the jet stream tends to dip further south. And what that does, it creates a stronger temperature gradient with that cold Canadian air to the north, and then we have that warm, moist gulf air to the south. Now, with that drastic temperature contrast, that can help to increase the number of storms, and in turn of course, the amount of severe weather that we see in parts of the Midwest and along the Gulf Coast. So with a strong jet stream, you can have the perfect amount of fuel for severe thunderstorms, because with that strong wind to the upper levels of the atmosphere that's providing extra spin, and then you have extra energy needed for these thunderstorms to really intensify and really thrive and produce damaging winds, hail and, of course, Tornadoes. So this time of the year, we see like a number of cold fronts moving through. That's that's typical, right? And in the Mississippi Valley and parts of the Midwest and the Gulf Coast, we start to see that increased tornado risk in October and November as these cold fronts move through. Now, for December, that threat actually moves a little bit further to the north, so into the northern Gulf Coast states, because it's in these spots that we have a better opportunity for that warmth and the moisture to meet up with the colder temperatures during those colder months. A lot of people also forget that hurricane season does not end until November 30. So we still got time, y'all, we still got time. And hurricanes can, as we've seen already this year, spawn tornadoes as they make landfall, and their remnants can still cause plenty of issues as they move inland. So just because we're getting into fall and everything is, you know leaves are changing and we're getting further into pumpkin spice season, doesn't mean that we have to forget that hurricane season is going on too, right? And, of course, you know me, so big data is something I'm going to look at.
BB: Of course, when I think of Tawana Andrew, I know whatever Tawana Andrew says it's going to be backed up by numbers.
TA: Yeah, I love me some numbers. Don't love math, but I do love numbers, and the data does show that over the last 25 years, on average, Kentucky sees about five tornadoes in the last three months of the year, and Indiana sees three tornadoes in the last three months of the year. On average, for the last two decades, Indiana has seen around 27 tornadoes yearly, and Kentucky 29. So it's not a lot, but when you're not paying attention to the potential for tornadoes, even that one out of three can be pretty dramatic. And we've, we've had major severe weather outbreaks multiple times in the month of November, including in 1989, 2005, and 2015. And these three outbreaks, they spawn 580 tornadoes that went anywhere from Nebraska all the way up towards New York. So over 500 tornadoes in those just three November outbreaks. So this is something just important to keep in mind.
This transcript was edited for clarity.
