In late July, Louisville Mayor Craig Greenberg went to Frankfort to advocate for incentives and funding mechanisms that he said would help foster the development of more affordable housing across Kentucky.
In Louisville, additional units have not quelled the need for such housing in recent years, Greenberg told the bipartisan group of lawmakers on the Kentucky Housing Task Force.
“Over the last five years in Jefferson County, we have built more than 18,000 units of affordable housing,” he said. “Yet, during those same five years, our gap of needed units of affordable housing has grown from 31,000 units now to 36,000 units.”
One thing is sure: Louisville does not have enough affordable housing.
More than 4,600 people are waiting for public housing, a wait that can last up to three years. Meanwhile, fair market rent prices have increased more than 77% in the past decade. And more people are experiencing homelessness in Louisville than in recent years.
But the city has not built as many units as Greenberg claimed.
Records obtained by the Kentucky Center for Investigative Reporting show that in the past five years the city has helped finance just 6,400 units of affordable housing. And most of them — about 4,600 units — are under construction or waiting for construction to begin, according to records that detail projects funded through Louisville Metro Government’s array of subsidy programs and the Louisville Affordable Housing Trust Fund, which uses public money to provide grants and low-interest loans to developers.
So why did Greenberg tell lawmakers there have been more than 18,000 units of affordable housing built in the county since 2019?
Because a recent assessment of the city’s housing needs, completed in April by the Pennsylvania-based consulting firm Mullin & Lonergan Associates, found that between 2019 and 2024 the stock of housing in Louisville that’s considered affordable for the lowest-income earners grew by 18,399 units. For housing to be considered affordable, a family should be able to cover living expenses like rent and utilities within 30% of its annual income.
But the number Greenberg cited isn’t a true indication of the number of newly built units, according to housing experts and data analysts.
The consultants analyzed a limited set of U.S. Census data to get an estimate of the change in housing stock over time. They didn’t actually count units of new housing.
This means the 18,399 increase is a mix of new construction and “naturally occurring” affordable housing, said Conroy Delouche, a spokesperson for the Louisville Metro Cabinet for Economic Development.
What is “naturally occurring” affordable housing?
“Units that don't have subsidies, but, based on their rent, they're affordable,” said Christie McCravy, the executive director of the Louisville Affordable Housing Trust Fund.
In other words, they are units that, over time, have become affordable to people who earn 30% of the area median income, which is about $30,000 annually for a family of four. These units could be houses that need renovations, or apartments in depressed areas, McCravey said.
Beyond the third-party housing assessment, city officials don’t track naturally occurring affordable housing trends. But McCravey said the consultant’s analysis is reasonable.
“Think about the West End…South End,” she said. “There are a lot of units that, based on the market and what the market will bear, the landlord can't charge more because no one's going to rent them for that.”
A lofty goal
In hindsight, it would have been more accurate for Greenberg to describe the increase in units as housing “created” rather than built, said Caitlin Bowling, a spokesperson for the Louisville Metro Cabinet for Economic Development.
“You will note when you read it that [the housing needs assessment] does not say those are all new homes,” she said.
But Greenberg says he wants to see new homes. He promised to build 15,000 new affordable housing units in his first term.
To do so, his administration determined that funding the Louisville Affordable Housing Trust Fund and updating the city’s land development code are top priorities, according to the city’s housing strategy.
The Metro Council in June approved Greenberg’s recommended $15 million dollar allocation to the trust fund this fiscal year. Trust fund officials are expected to present a plan to local lawmakers next year outlining how the agency will become self-sufficient.
Earlier this year Metro Council President Markus Winkler, a District 17 Democrat, created an ad hoc committee to conduct an “in-depth examination into the land use process.”
Metro Council Member Andrew Owen, a District 9 Democrat, chairs the committee. Owen, a real estate developer, said building affordable housing is a complex process — from the finances to the public relations of convincing people to eschew the so-called NIMBYism that can slog proposed projects.
“I always hear the horror stories, right? I always hear of the people without housing,” he said. “I hear those stories a lot, maybe not every day, but a lot.”
And though Owen said Greenberg should have got his facts right when he went to Frankfort in July, he said the point the mayor was trying to make — that the city needs more affordable housing — still rings true.
